Skip to main content

Market ahead- Jan 2022

 Market ahead- Jan 2022


"The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behaviour that is responsible for overreaction in both the directions." 

-Seth Klarman



As we updated about all major moves in Index on Telegram and YT, now Index turned towards downside and closed(17613), below the major support of 17660. Index moving along with our projected path which shown in below image.





May 2022 possibility-




Auto Index-


As we currently bearish on index Nifty50 but as we looked Nifty Auto index which quietly looking bullish above 12230. Auto Index looking attractive for long if Index hold above 12000.

Auto weightage in NIFTY50- 4.95%

TOP 10 STOCK Weightage- 58.39%

No Auto stock in top 10 stock which having higher weightage.

So it's meaning is NIFTY50 n NIFTY-AUTO may behave opposite to each other. Even after bearish view on NIFTY50, We may go long for NIFTY-AUTO. We may correct in both cases or correct in one case only.

There is game of probability anything can be possible, we just need to manage our risk and drive the opportunities.


Nifty Auto-

Current Level- 11562 

Buy above 12230

Sell below 10200

Note: As like Nifty & Banknifty, contracts for Nifty Auto not available to trade so with this view you can make bet on top players of Auto sector

 

What is way forward-

As above details are all about overall market view, so as market looking bearish and many stocks now trading at 20/30/40 % down from their All Time High. So this is an opportunity to acquire good stocks in portfolio. Make your list of quality stocks for shopping during this bearish turn. I already wrote about how to make your investment in particular business, you can read about it here- How to choose stocks & invest for long term. Using this method you can invest in quality stock in this fall. As recently even market falling some of our stock hitting upper circuits, so if you choose momentum picks then irrespective of market direction you can earn profits. As Index contains only 50 stocks so it show only overall picture of particular stocks only. There is possibility you can go long on many stocks even in falling Index. 

You can study below stocks which comes from different sectors and they have potential to grow huge in long term perspective.

Kaveri Seeds

LT

Axis Bank

HCL Tech

Ashok Leyland

IOC

UPL

CRISIL

Bharat Forge

HDFC AMC

ULTRATECH CEMENT 

AVANTI FEEDS

Indiamart


Just remember while investing and trading, Anything will happen in market and no one predict it 100% accurate each-time, our positions the only things which we can control. Do your own study before performing any action. 



Mayur Jagtap

Investment Consultant.



For regular and daily small update 







Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Algorithmic Threat: How Social Media Endangers Democracy

  The Algorithmic Threat: How Social Media Endangers Democracy Social media platforms have become an undeniable force in our lives. They connect us with friends and family, inform us about current events, and entertain us. However, beneath the surface of connection lurks a potential threat to democracies: the algorithms that curate our online experience. These algorithms, designed to keep us engaged, can create echo chambers and filter bubbles. They prioritize content that confirms our existing beliefs, regardless of accuracy, and push us further away from opposing viewpoints. This can lead to increased political polarization, where people become entrenched in their own ideologies and distrustful of anything that challenges them. How what's app messages impact on opinion: Echo Chambers and Confirmation Bias:   People often connect with like-minded individuals on WhatsApp. Constant exposure to reinforcing messages can strengthen existing beliefs, making voters less receptive to...
Post a Comment
Read more

Understanding Option Trading: The Statistical and Probabilistic Game

Understanding Option Trading: The Statistical and Probabilistic Game "Trading is a game of probabilities. You don't have to be right every time. You just have to follow your rules."  In the vast arena of financial markets, option trading stands out as a unique and intriguing game—one deeply rooted in the realms of statistics and probability. Unlike traditional stock trading, where investors buy and sell shares of a company, option trading involves contracts granting the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame. However, what makes option trading particularly fascinating is its reliance on mathematical principles, where every move is a calculated risk based on statistical analysis and probability assessment. The Basics of Option Trading Before delving into the statistical intricacies, it's crucial to grasp the fundamentals of option trading. Options come in two primary forms: cal...
Post a Comment
Read more

Riding the Volatility Wave: Option Trading

 Riding the Volatility Wave: Option Trading Derivative products, particularly options, offer a unique way to leverage market movements, and volatility plays a key role in this game. By understanding how volatility affects option prices, traders can craft strategies to capitalize on anticipated price swings. Volatility Skew: A Window into Market Sentiment Traditionally, option pricing models assume symmetrical volatility – meaning the cost of calls (bullish options) and puts (bearish options) is similar for the same strike price and expiration. However, the real world rarely reflects this symmetry. This is where the concept of volatility skew comes in. Volatility skew refers to the difference in implied volatilities for calls and puts with the same strike price and expiry. It reveals valuable insights into market sentiment: Positive Skew: Higher call volatility compared to put volatility suggests a market bias towards potential price increases. Traders might use strategies like bul...
Post a Comment
Read more