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Market Guide 2

Nifty from 12100 to 10700; What next?

(This blog only for education purpose writer not advising any trade opportunity)


Rule- History repeat itself. 

So we firstly analyse last 2008 crisis.

2008 Crisis  Nifty 50 Monthly chart.
6357   PE Ratio-25.33
 2252   PE Ratio-12.69
Chart A.




Why stock market crash in 2008-

  • Change in global investment climate
  • Globally Central bank policy rates were slashed to historic lows. 
  • US financial crisis stemming from crisis in sub-prime lending market.


Chart pattern before start of 2008 crisis


Chart B.

Current situation on chart


In June 2019 High 120103 PE Ratio=29.25
  In Aug 2019 PE Ratio- 27.05
Chart C.


                                                   It may correct till 22 to 20 in  upcoming months(Nifty may fall upto 8800 magic figure)

When stock market peaks, dividend yield of index bottoms.

According to chart candle formed 5 to 6 months before  Jan 2008 and June 2019 was identical.(see chart B & C)




Analyzing 2019's situation-

  • IL&FS Crisis.

  • Real Estate price down- JP Infra in North India, Sahara, DSK, Lavasa all are failed in credit management and serious charges of money laundring.

  • NPA's- Yes Bank(Jet Airways loan) and NBFC's.

  • RBI's REPO rate cuts benefits not passed to consumers by banks.

  • Rise of Right wing in politics all over world who have tendency of anti globalization.  e.g.- Trump's America first, Britain's policy against emigrants, Brexit.
  • Climate change results lower corp yielding.
  • In India this monsoon season reduction in sowing area in kharip by 15% across western ghat where area affected by floods this resulted increase in food inflation.
  • Demonetization and GST acted as sudden breaks to economy; 28% tax slab in GST was main glitch in tax system.

  • Due to unemployment age group of 21 to 30 have low purchasing  power resulted slowdown.

  • Currently Government of India stop funding for Road and infrastructure projects.

  • Make in India, Skill India and Mudra load only being popular but not game changer.

  • Auto Sector in confuse state between BS 6 and Electric vehicles.

  • Global slowdown, unemployment and trade war tensions and GDP slowdown.

  • Alert-deutsche bank wind up its operation in India recently.



Mayur Jagtap

Investment Consultant.



For regular and daily small update 


See also

Crash of 2008 Highlights(wikipedia page)-  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crashes_in_India#Crashes_of_2008


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